GW14 · Deadline Saturday 11:30 · 8 candidates ranked
| # | Player | Fixture | Form | xPts | Own % | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salah | WOL (A) | 8.0 | 8.6 | 38% | |
| Salah has averaged 7.2 ppg over the last 5 GWs, faces a Wolves side that's conceded 9 in their last 6. Ownership floor at 38% caps downside vs the field. Reliable double-digit ceiling. | ||||||
| 2 | Palmer | MCI (H) | 8.2 | 8.1 | 31% | |
| Form leader with 41 pts last 5. Home vs City is harder than the FDR suggests, but Palmer's set-piece duties and penalty role give him a higher floor than most premium MIDs. Differential edge if City defense holds. | ||||||
| 3 | Wood | LEE (H) | 7.4 | 7.2 | 14% | |
| Differential punt at 14% ownership. Home vs Leeds with Wood as the lone striker — clear shot-on-goal monopoly. Risk: Forest rotation possible after midweek European fixture. | ||||||
| 4 | Isak | BUR (A) | 6.6 | 7.0 | 22% | |
| Burnley away is winnable, but Isak's xG conversion has been streaky — overperformed by 2.1 goals this season, due regression. Solid floor, lower ceiling than the top 3. | ||||||
| 5 | Haaland | CHE (A) | 4.6 | 5.8 | 52% | |
| Template captain, but Chelsea away is a brutal fixture. Highest base xPts in the model gets dragged down by FDR. If you're chasing rank, sticking with him is defensible; if you're attacking rank, pivot. | ||||||
| 6 | Saka | CHE (H) | 6.2 | 6.4 | 24% | |
| Home in a London derby, but Saka's xG has been suppressed in the last 3 — touches in the box dropped by 18%. Wait for confirmed minutes before locking in. | ||||||