Scenario Narrative Generator Skill

Scenario Narrative Generator

Overview

The Scenario Narrative Generator skill creates vivid, internally consistent narratives for strategic scenarios. It transforms driving forces and uncertainties into compelling stories that help stakeholders envision alternative futures and test strategic options.

Capabilities

Driving forces integration
Consistency checking across scenario elements
Narrative arc construction
Key event identification
Implication extraction
Headline generation
Persona-in-scenario development
Scenario comparison tables

Used By Processes

Strategic Scenario Development
War Gaming and Competitive Response Modeling
What-If Analysis Framework

Usage

Scenario Framework

# Define scenario framework
scenario_framework = {
    "focus_question": "What will the enterprise software market look like in 2030?",
    "time_horizon": "2030",
    "critical_uncertainties": [
        {
            "name": "AI Adoption Rate",
            "dimension": "Technology",
            "poles": ["Rapid AI Integration", "Gradual AI Adoption"]
        },
        {
            "name": "Regulatory Environment",
            "dimension": "Political",
            "poles": ["Tech-Friendly Regulation", "Restrictive Regulation"]
        }
    ],
    "scenario_matrix": {
        "scenarios": [
            {"name": "AI Explosion", "position": ["Rapid AI", "Tech-Friendly"]},
            {"name": "Regulated Innovation", "position": ["Rapid AI", "Restrictive"]},
            {"name": "Steady Progress", "position": ["Gradual AI", "Tech-Friendly"]},
            {"name": "Digital Caution", "position": ["Gradual AI", "Restrictive"]}
        ]
    }
}

Scenario Elements

# Define scenario elements
scenario_elements = {
    "scenario_name": "AI Explosion",
    "driving_forces": {
        "technology": "AI capabilities advance rapidly, with AGI breakthroughs",
        "economy": "Massive productivity gains fuel economic growth",
        "society": "Workforce disruption creates social tension",
        "regulation": "Governments adopt innovation-friendly policies"
    },
    "key_events": [
        {"year": 2025, "event": "First enterprise AGI deployment"},
        {"year": 2026, "event": "50% of software written by AI"},
        {"year": 2027, "event": "Major productivity leap in white-collar work"},
        {"year": 2028, "event": "Traditional software vendors consolidate"},
        {"year": 2029, "event": "New AI-native competitors dominate"},
        {"year": 2030, "event": "Enterprise software market unrecognizable"}
    ],
    "stakeholder_impacts": {
        "customers": "Expect AI-first solutions, willing to pay premium for automation",
        "competitors": "AI-native startups disrupt incumbents",
        "employees": "Massive reskilling required",
        "investors": "Flight to AI leaders, traditional valuations collapse"
    }
}

Narrative Generation

# Generate narrative
narrative_config = {
    "scenario_name": "AI Explosion",
    "style": "journalist_from_the_future",
    "length": "1500_words",
    "structure": {
        "headline": True,
        "opening_hook": True,
        "timeline_narrative": True,
        "stakeholder_vignettes": True,
        "implications_summary": True
    },
    "persona": {
        "include": True,
        "name": "Sarah Chen",
        "role": "CIO of a mid-size manufacturer",
        "journey": "How her company navigated this world"
    }
}

Consistency Check

# Check narrative consistency
consistency_check = {
    "checks": [
        {
            "type": "causal_logic",
            "elements": ["rapid_ai", "workforce_disruption"],
            "result": "consistent",
            "note": "AI adoption logically leads to job displacement"
        },
        {
            "type": "timeline",
            "elements": ["AGI_2025", "software_dominance_2026"],
            "result": "plausible",
            "note": "12-month gap is tight but possible given premise"
        },
        {
            "type": "contradiction",
            "elements": ["innovation_friendly_regulation", "strict_ai_oversight"],
            "result": "inconsistent",
            "note": "Resolve: clarify regulation is permissive on development, focused on safety"
        }
    ]
}

Comparison Table

# Generate comparison table
comparison_config = {
    "scenarios": ["AI Explosion", "Regulated Innovation", "Steady Progress", "Digital Caution"],
    "dimensions": [
        "Market Size 2030",
        "Number of Major Vendors",
        "AI Penetration Rate",
        "Regulatory Burden",
        "Workforce Impact",
        "Key Success Factors",
        "Strategic Implications"
    ]
}

Input Schema

{
  "scenario_framework": {
    "focus_question": "string",
    "time_horizon": "string",
    "critical_uncertainties": ["object"],
    "scenario_matrix": "object"
  },
  "scenario_elements": {
    "driving_forces": "object",
    "key_events": ["object"],
    "stakeholder_impacts": "object"
  },
  "narrative_config": {
    "style": "string",
    "length": "string",
    "structure": "object",
    "persona": "object"
  }
}

Output Schema

{
  "narrative": {
    "headline": "string",
    "body": "string (markdown)",
    "word_count": "number"
  },
  "persona_story": {
    "name": "string",
    "journey": "string"
  },
  "key_events_timeline": ["object"],
  "implications": {
    "strategic": ["string"],
    "operational": ["string"],
    "capability_gaps": ["string"]
  },
  "comparison_table": "object",
  "consistency_report": "object"
}

Narrative Styles

| Style | Characteristics | Best For | |-------|-----------------|----------| | Journalist | News article from the future | Vivid, accessible | | Historian | Looking back at changes | Analytical, comprehensive | | Day-in-the-Life | Personal experience | Emotional, relatable | | Strategic Briefing | Executive summary | Time-efficient, action-oriented |

Best Practices

Make scenarios vivid and memorable with specific details
Ensure internal consistency within each scenario
Make scenarios sufficiently different from each other
Balance plausibility with challenge to conventional thinking
Include both opportunities and threats
Use personas to make abstract futures tangible
Connect scenarios to strategic decisions

Scenario Quality Criteria

| Criterion | Description | |-----------|-------------| | Plausibility | Could this happen given current trends? | | Consistency | Do elements logically fit together? | | Relevance | Does it address the focus question? | | Differentiation | Is it distinct from other scenarios? | | Usability | Can stakeholders engage with it? | | Challenge | Does it stretch conventional thinking? |

Integration Points

Feeds into War Game Orchestrator for competitive scenarios
Connects with System Dynamics Modeler for quantification
Supports Scenario Planner agent
Integrates with Strategic Options Analyst for strategy testing

Agent Skills: Scenario Narrative Generator

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