Assumption Challenger
Systematically identifies and stress-tests assumptions that are treated as facts but may not be validated.
When to Use
- Validating roadmaps and project plans
- Reviewing architecture proposals
- Assessing build vs buy decisions
- Evaluating timelines and budgets
- Challenging strategic initiatives
Why Assumptions Matter
Most project failures trace back to invalid assumptions:
- Timeline assumptions: "We can ship in 6 weeks" (based on nothing)
- Resource assumptions: "We'll hire 3 engineers" (in a tight market)
- Technical assumptions: "The API can handle 10K requests/sec" (never tested)
- Business assumptions: "Users will adopt this feature" (never validated)
The cost of invalid assumptions compounds over time. A bad assumption in week 1 can waste months of work.
Assumption Categories
1. Timeline Assumptions
Assumptions about how long things will take.
Common patterns:
- "This should only take 2 weeks"
- "We'll have the integration done by launch"
- "The team can absorb this additional scope"
Challenge questions:
- What's this estimate based on? Past experience or hope?
- What similar work have we done? How long did it actually take?
- What's not included in this estimate? (Testing, documentation, deployment)
- What happens if this takes 2x longer?
2. Resource Assumptions
Assumptions about team capacity and availability.
Common patterns:
- "We'll hire 2 senior engineers by Q2"
- "The DevOps team can support this"
- "Sarah can lead this while maintaining her other work"
Challenge questions:
- What's the hiring timeline? What if we can't find the right people?
- What's the team's current utilization? Where does time come from?
- Who's the backup if the key person is unavailable?
- What happens if the team is 50% of expected capacity?
3. Technical Assumptions
Assumptions about system capabilities and constraints.
Common patterns:
- "The database can handle the load"
- "We can integrate with their API easily"
- "Our architecture supports this use case"
Challenge questions:
- Has this been tested at the required scale?
- What are the documented limits? What happens at those limits?
- What's the failure mode? How do we recover?
- Have we talked to the API provider about our usage patterns?
4. Business Assumptions
Assumptions about market, users, and business outcomes.
Common patterns:
- "Users want this feature"
- "This will reduce churn by 20%"
- "The market will wait for our solution"
Challenge questions:
- What evidence supports this? User research? Data?
- What if users don't adopt this? What's the fallback?
- What are competitors doing in this space?
- How will we know if this assumption is wrong?
5. External Assumptions
Assumptions about factors outside your control.
Common patterns:
- "The vendor will have the feature ready"
- "Regulations won't change"
- "The market will remain stable"
Challenge questions:
- What's our contingency if this doesn't happen?
- What's the vendor's track record on commitments?
- What early warning signs would indicate this is wrong?
- What's the cost of being wrong?
Assumption Identification Process
Step 1: Surface Assumptions
Read the proposal and identify statements that are treated as facts but aren't validated:
Flag statements containing:
- "We will..." (without evidence)
- "We can..." (without proof)
- "Users want..." (without data)
- "It should..." (without testing)
- "We expect..." (without basis)
- "We assume..." (at least they're honest)
Step 2: Categorize Assumptions
For each assumption, categorize:
| Category | Risk if Wrong | Validation Difficulty | |----------|---------------|----------------------| | Timeline | Project delay | Medium (compare to past) | | Resource | Execution failure | Medium (check market) | | Technical | System failure | High (requires testing) | | Business | Wasted investment | High (requires market validation) | | External | Plans disrupted | Variable |
Step 3: Assess Each Assumption
For each significant assumption:
### Assumption: [Statement]
**Category**: [Type]
**Stated or Implicit**: [Was it stated or hidden?]
**Evidence Supporting**:
- [Evidence 1]
- [Evidence 2]
**Evidence Against**:
- [Counter-evidence 1]
- [Counter-evidence 2]
**Risk if Wrong**:
- [Impact on timeline]
- [Impact on cost]
- [Impact on success]
**Validation Method**:
- [How to test this assumption]
- [Cost/time to validate]
**Verdict**:
[ ] Valid - Evidence supports
[ ] Questionable - Needs validation
[ ] Invalid - Evidence contradicts
[ ] Unknown - Cannot assess
Step 4: Prioritize Challenges
Focus on assumptions that are:
- High impact - Project fails if wrong
- Low evidence - Based on hope, not data
- Testable - Can be validated before commitment
Challenge Patterns
The Reality Check
Compare assumption to external data.
Template:
"You assume [X]. Industry data shows [Y]. What makes you different?"
Example:
"You assume you can hire 3 senior engineers in 2 months. The average time-to-hire for senior engineers in your market is 4-6 months. What's your strategy to beat that?"
The History Test
Compare to organization's past performance.
Template:
"You assume [X]. Last time you attempted [similar thing], it took [Y]. What's changed?"
Example:
"You assume 8 weeks for the microservices migration. Your last infrastructure migration took 5 months. What's different this time?"
The Stress Test
Push assumption to failure point.
Template:
"You assume [X]. What happens when [stress scenario]?"
Example:
"You assume the system handles 10K concurrent users. What happens during a flash sale with 50K? What's the failure mode?"
The Dependency Audit
Trace assumption to its dependencies.
Template:
"For [assumption] to be true, what else must be true?"
Example:
"For your 6-week timeline to work, you need: (1) API specs finalized by week 1, (2) no scope changes, (3) 100% team availability, (4) no production incidents. How realistic is that?"
The Inverse Test
Consider what happens if assumption is wrong.
Template:
"If [assumption] is wrong, what's the impact? What's your Plan B?"
Example:
"If users don't adopt this feature, what's the fallback? Have you defined failure criteria?"
Wishful Thinking Indicators
Red flags that suggest assumption is based on hope rather than evidence:
1. The Optimistic Timeline
- "Should only take..."
- "If everything goes well..."
- "We can do it if we're focused..."
Reality: Things rarely go perfectly. Add 30-50% buffer.
2. The Magical Hiring
- "We'll just hire..."
- "Once we have the team..."
- "We're planning to bring on..."
Reality: Hiring takes 3-6 months for senior roles. Onboarding adds another 2-3 months to productivity.
3. The Simple Integration
- "It's just an API call..."
- "Should be straightforward..."
- "They have good documentation..."
Reality: Integrations always have edge cases, rate limits, and unexpected behaviors.
4. The Obvious Market
- "Everyone needs this..."
- "Users have been asking for..."
- "It's clear that..."
Reality: "Everyone" is not a market segment. Validate with actual user research.
5. The Linear Scaling
- "If we can do X, we can do 10X..."
- "We'll scale as needed..."
- "Growth shouldn't be a problem..."
Reality: Scaling is non-linear. What works at 10K users may fail at 100K.
Output Format
When challenging assumptions, provide:
# Assumption Analysis: [Plan/Proposal Name]
## Summary
- **Total Assumptions Identified**: [Count]
- **High-Risk Assumptions**: [Count]
- **Requires Immediate Validation**: [Count]
## Critical Assumptions (Must Validate Before Proceeding)
### Assumption 1: [Statement]
**Category**: Timeline / Resource / Technical / Business / External
**Stated or Implicit**: Stated / Implicit
**The Problem**:
[Why this assumption is questionable]
**Evidence For**:
- [Supporting evidence]
**Evidence Against**:
- [Counter-evidence]
**If Wrong, Impact**:
- Timeline: [Impact]
- Budget: [Impact]
- Success: [Impact]
**How to Validate**:
- [Validation method]
- [Time required]
- [Cost]
**Verdict**: Valid / Questionable / Invalid / Unknown
---
### Assumption 2: [Statement]
[Same format]
---
## Medium-Risk Assumptions (Should Validate)
[List with brief analysis]
## Low-Risk Assumptions (Monitor)
[List]
## Recommendations
### Before Proceeding
1. [Validation action 1]
2. [Validation action 2]
### Risk Mitigation
1. [Mitigation for assumption 1]
2. [Mitigation for assumption 2]
### Contingency Plans Needed
1. [Plan B for assumption 1]
2. [Plan B for assumption 2]
Integration with Validation
The assumption-challenger skill feeds into the broader validation workflow:
Proposal/Plan
│
▼
[assumption-challenger] → List of assumptions with verdicts
│
▼
[antipattern-detector] → Identified anti-patterns
│
▼
[validation-report-generator] → Final 8-section report
References
- Wishful Thinking Patterns - Common patterns to watch for
- Challenge Questions - Ready-to-use challenge questions by category