aeon-unlock-monitor
Empirically (Keyrock's 16k+ unlock analysis), ratios > 2.4× strain liquidity and produce measurable drawdown; < 0.5× the market yawns. The skill ranks by ratio first, supply % second, and adds pre-unlock price action to produce a per-event verdict.
Tiers
ratio = unlock_usd_value / 7d_avg_daily_volume
CRISIS > 2.4× liquidity cannot absorb without slippage
STRAIN 1.0-2.4× multiple sessions to digest
DIGESTIBLE 0.3-1.0× notable but absorbable
TRIVIAL < 0.3× background noise
Recipient override: team/investor (cost-basis-zero sellers) bump up one tier; community/staking-rewards bump down. Court-ordered distributions (FTX, Mt. Gox, Celsius) bypass the tier system — always included, labeled forced.
Market read
| Read | Condition |
|---|---|
| priced in | Token down > 20% over 30d AND tier ≤ STRAIN. Selling has happened. |
| market asleep | Flat or up over 30d AND tier ≥ STRAIN. Asymmetric downside. |
| fade pump | Up > 15% over 30d AND tier = CRISIS. Pre-cliff bid-and-dump. |
| forced sellers | Court-ordered. Legal timeline, not market-driven. |
| absorbable | TRIVIAL/DIGESTIBLE with no recipient flag. |
Sources
Tokenomist (primary), DefiLlama unlocks, CryptoRank, DropsTab, CoinGecko for volume + 30d price. Source status emitted in output — DEGRADED if 2+ fail, ERROR only if all fail.
Output
Headline = most-leveraged unlock with its market read. Then tiered groups: CRISIS → STRAIN → DIGESTIBLE → FORCED. Quiet week ships UNLOCK_MONITOR_QUIET with one sentence — supply being calm is itself a signal.
A local state/unlock-monitor-seen.json holds ${ticker}:${unlock_date} keys on a 90-day window for dedup.
Rules
- Cliff pattern: weakness ~30d prior, vol peak on the date, recovery 10-14 days after. Note explicitly.
- Linear unlocks rarely produce single-day shocks. Say so when one shows up high.
- Be direct. "priced in", "market's asleep", "fade the pump". No hedging.