Pre-Mortems with Kill Criteria
Overview
An enhancement to the standard pre-mortem that moves beyond simply imagining failure to establishing pre-committed actions based on specific negative signals.
Core principle: Thinking about failure isn't enough; you must commit to actions BEFORE you see the signals.
The Process
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 1. MENTAL TIME TRAVEL │
│ Fast forward: Imagine the project has FAILED │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 2. SIGNAL IDENTIFICATION │
│ "What early clues indicated the failure?" │
│ List specific, observable signals │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 3. DEFINE KILL CRITERIA │
│ Convert clues into measurable thresholds │
│ Example: "CPA > $50" or "Customer won't demo" │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 4. PRE-COMMITMENT │
│ Establish rule: "If [Criteria] occurs, we [Kill/Pivot]" │
│ Write it down and share with team │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 5. ACTIVE MONITORING │
│ Scan for criteria during execution │
│ Act immediately when triggered │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Key Principles
| Principle | Description | |-----------|-------------| | Pre-commit | Lock in actions before rationalization kicks in | | Signal focus | Identify correlates of failure, not just the failure itself | | Prospective waste | Think about future waste, not sunk cost | | Automatic triggers | When criteria hit, action is mandatory |
Common Mistakes
- Doing a pre-mortem but not changing the plan
- Identifying risks without setting a specific stop trigger
- Rationalizing signals when they appear ("it's different this time")
Source: Annie Duke (First Round Capital, WSOP Champion) via Lenny's Podcast