Agent-Skills.md

Agent Skills: Shell Scenario Panel

Shell methodology scenario planning with worldview elicitation, external scenario construction, actor-relative impact analysis, and rigorous documentation. Use when exploring futures, uncertainty, preparedness, positioning, or other decisions that benefit from multi-scenario reasoning.

UncategorizedID: dbmcco/claude-agent-toolkit/shell-scenario-panel

Repository

dbmcco/claude-agent-toolkit
dbmccoLicense: MIT
122

Install this agent skill to your local

pnpm dlx add-skill https://github.com/dbmcco/claude-agent-toolkit/tree/HEAD/skills/shell-scenario-panel

Skill Files

Browse the full folder contents for shell-scenario-panel.

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skills/shell-scenario-panel/SKILL.md

Skill Metadata

Name
shell-scenario-panel
Description
Shell methodology scenario planning with worldview elicitation, external scenario construction, actor-relative impact analysis, and rigorous documentation. Use when exploring futures, uncertainty, preparedness, positioning, or other decisions that benefit from multi-scenario reasoning.

Shell Scenario Panel

Use this skill when working inside:

  • <workspace-root>/ai-simulations/shell-scenario-panel

This skill is intentionally thin. The repo is the source of truth.

Canonical Files

Read only what you need, in this order:

  1. CODEX.md or CLAUDE.md for runtime-specific behavior
  2. prompts/moderator.md for the actual facilitation sequence
  3. .claude/config.json for phase definitions and specialist rosters

Do not rely on older copied workflow descriptions when these files disagree.

Startup

For Codex sessions:

.codex/session-start.sh

To resume:

.codex/session-start.sh --scenario SCENARIO-YYYY-NNN

To create a new scenario explicitly:

.codex/session-start.sh --new

To open monitoring mode:

.codex/session-start.sh --monitor SCENARIO-YYYY-NNN

For Claude sessions, use the equivalent .claude/session-start.sh.

Expected Workflow

The current live workflow is:

  1. Worldview elicitation 0a. Internal baseline 0b. Context enrichment
  2. Focal question
  3. Predetermined elements
  4. Critical uncertainties
  5. Scenario development
  6. Early warning signals 6a. Impact analysis 6b. Strategy / response testing
  7. Worldview integration

Important distinction:

  • Phases 1-5 build the external frame.
  • Phase 6a translates that frame into actor-relative impact.
  • Phase 6b turns impact into preparedness, positioning, or response guidance.
  • Phase 7 connects the work back to the user's worldview.

User-Facing Behavior

When the user invokes this skill, expected facilitator behavior is:

  • bootstrap the session automatically
  • check resources/ and offer to ingest materials
  • elicit worldview before doing external analysis
  • capture internal baseline before recommendations
  • stop after scenarios and run impact translation before strategy
  • use checkpoints after major synthesis steps
  • never ask the user to run scripts manually

From the user perspective, they should mostly:

  • describe the topic or decision
  • answer Dr. Wells' questions
  • validate syntheses at checkpoints
  • refine the focal actor or response mode when impact work begins

Impact Layer

Treat impact_analysis.md as mandatory between scenarios and strategy_analysis.md.

The impact layer is:

  • actor-relative, not scenario-relative
  • cross-domain, not business-only
  • suitable for household, personal finance, education, company, customer, or mixed actor systems

Default impact cast:

  • Marisol Vega (ledger_keeper)
  • Darnell Brooks (friction_mechanic)
  • Nadia Rahman (dependency_cartographer)
  • Dr. Imani Clarke (burden_cartographer)
  • Ethan Rowe (optionality_conservator)
  • Priya Desai (precedent_archivist)
  • Luis Ortega (signal_mason)
  • Jamie O'Sullivan (contrarian)

Overlay packs currently implemented:

  • household_personal
  • commercial_positioning

Use .claude/lib/select-impact-specialists.sh --list-overlays to inspect them or pass overlay ids to resolve the combined cast.

Research and Validation

  • Use pp -r --no-interactive "query" --output json for web research when needed.
  • Do not bypass transcript checks, metadata updates, or quality gates.
  • Use .claude/lib/file-paths.sh and related validation helpers when prompts refer to enforced file outputs.

Exports

If exports are needed:

.claude/export-deck-brief.sh SCENARIO-YYYY-NNN

Preview exports locally with:

.claude/lib/serve-exports.sh SCENARIO-YYYY-NNN