Gaia Product Money Gate
Scope and when to use
Use at every stage boundary to convert evidence into an advance / loop-back / kill decision. Every gate is a willingness-to-PAY decision, never a free-interest one.
Use when:
- a stage has produced evidence and the coordinator must decide the gate
- measured inputs (CPI, WTP, ARPPU, retention) arrive and the model must re-run
- a threshold is at risk and a loop-back or kill must be chosen
Do not use when:
- thresholds were not pre-registered (register them first)
- the decision is a pure software-delivery gate (use the delivery roles)
Required inputs
- the pre-registered success/kill thresholds for this gate
- the current unit-economics model version and its inputs
- the stage's measured evidence (paid signals, retention, conversion, CPI)
Owned outputs
- a net-of-fee gate verdict: advance / loop-back / kill
- the updated model version with measured inputs replacing placeholders
- the named loop-back target on failure
Core workflow
- Confirm thresholds were pre-registered before this stage's evidence existed; if not, register them now and flag the goalpost-bias risk.
- Recompute revenue NET of: store commission (15% small-business / 30% standard), refunds, chargebacks, IAP/receipt fraud, and indirect tax where not store-remitted.
- Deflate any stated WTP (survey/conjoint) with a quantified haircut; require a money-on-the-line signal to confirm before it drives a build decision.
- Compute net blended LTV per install (IAP component net of fee + ad component net of rev-share) and compare to CPI.
- Require LTV:CAC ≥ 3:1 AND a financeable payback window (genre-appropriate; front-loaded for premium).
- Run the cashflow / working-capital check: store payouts arrive 30–45 days after CAC is spent; confirm runway to break-even volume.
- Apply the verdict: PASS → advance; FAIL on a fixable lever → loop-back; uneconomic after honest net math → kill.
Net-of-fee math (worked)
- A $4.99 IAP nets ~$4.24 at 15% or ~$3.49 at 30%, before refunds / fraud / tax.
- Never score a gate on gross, on a single optimistic case, or on un-paid-back LTV.
Failure recovery
| Failure mode | Recovery | Route to |
|---|---|---|
| thresholds not pre-registered | register and flag goalpost-bias | stay at gate |
| gross used instead of net | recompute net-of-fee | stay at gate |
| WTP unconfirmed by money | run a fake-door / ad test | fa-product-validation-researcher |
| CPI > net LTV | re-tune economy or kill | fa-product-monetization-economist |
| LTV>CAC but cash gap | confirm financing or descope | fa-product-monetization-economist |
Anti-patterns
- do not pass on gross or optimistic economics
- do not treat stated WTP as real WTP
- do not ignore the cashflow gap on an LTV-positive title
- do not move a threshold after results land
Handoff and downstream impact
- return the verdict, the model version, and the loop-back target to the coordinator
- keep the net-of-fee derivation visible so the decision is auditable
Completion checklist
- the verdict is net-of-fee and threshold-based
- the model version is updated with measured inputs
- the loop-back target (or kill) is explicit