Agent Skills: matchup-win-probability-sim

Computes P(we win at least K of N categories) for a head-to-head categorical matchup via Monte-Carlo simulation or Poisson-binomial approximation. Domain-neutral — works for any fantasy sport with H2H Categories scoring (MLB, NBA, NHL) or any zero-sum per-category competition. Use when you need matchup_win_probability, per_cat_win_probability, expected_cats_won, or variance_estimate; or when user mentions "matchup win probability", "head to head simulation", "Monte Carlo matchup", "Poisson binomial matchup", "P win 6 of 10", "category matchup simulation", or "weekly win probability".