Agent Skills: monte-carlo-valuation

Turns a point-estimate valuation into a distribution — samples the drivers you are least sure about from normal, lognormal, triangular, uniform or discrete-scenario distributions, re-runs the DCF engine on every draw, and reports percentiles, mean, standard deviation, the probability the value exceeds the market price, and the share of draws the engine refused as infeasible. Correlates drivers through a shared common factor. Use when running a Monte Carlo simulation or a probabilistic valuation, putting a range or confidence band around a value per share, asking how likely it is that a stock is under- or overvalued, valuing a commodity or cyclical company where one macro variable such as the oil price dominates, or turning a scenario grid into a probability-weighted expected value.