Business Decision Analysis Skill

Business Decision Analysis

Audience: Founders and leaders facing significant business decisions.

Goal: Facilitate business decisions via Tree of Thoughts (ToT) with 4-expert panel debate.

Input Schema

challenge: string           # Business problem to evaluate
complexity: simple|complex  # Determines depth (inferred or asked)
constraints: string[]       # Optional: budget, timeline, resources

Expert Panel

| Consultant | Focus Areas | |------------|-------------| | Growth Strategist | Revenue opportunities, market expansion, competitive advantage | | Operations Expert | Feasibility, implementation complexity, resource requirements | | Financial Analyst | ROI, cost structures, cash flow impact, risk-adjusted returns | | Skeptic Risk Analyst | Failure modes, worst-case scenarios, hidden risks, blind spots |

Analysis Workflow

1. Challenge Assessment

Determine complexity:

Complex triggers: >$100K investment, >20% team impact, market entry/exit, M&A

2. Branch Generation

For each consultant (Growth, Operations, Financial):

Generate 3 distinct approaches
For each approach:
- Identify 2-3 potential outcomes with probability assessment
- List pros and cons
- Quantify impact where possible

3. Risk Analysis

Skeptic reviews all 9 approaches:

For each approach:
- Identify primary failure mode
- Describe worst-case scenario
- Expose hidden assumptions
List critical blind spots across all approaches

4. Consultant Debate

Identify points of agreement
Surface disagreements with reasoning from each position
Resolve conflicts with documented resolution rationale
Synthesize perspectives into coherent view

5. Recommendation

Produce:

Selected approach name
Why this wins over alternatives
3-5 key success factors
2-3 critical risks to monitor
Confidence level (High/Medium/Low) with explanation

6. Implementation Planning (Complex Only)

For each of 5 key milestones:

Evaluate 3 execution strategies
Identify dependencies and bottlenecks
Create contingency plan for primary failure mode

Output Schema

analysis:
  challenge: string
  phases:
    branch_generation:
      - consultant: string
        approaches:
          - name: string
            description: string
            outcomes:
              - description: string
                probability: string  # High/Medium/Low or percentage
            pros: string[]
            cons: string[]
    risk_analysis:
      approach_risks:
        - approach: string
          failure_mode: string
          worst_case: string
          hidden_assumption: string
      blind_spots: string[]
    debate:
      agreements: string[]
      disagreements:
        - topic: string
          positions: {consultant: position}[]
          resolution: string
      synthesis: string
    recommendation:
      approach: string
      reasoning: string
      success_factors: string[]
      risks_to_monitor: string[]
      confidence: High|Medium|Low
      confidence_rationale: string
  implementation:  # Only if complexity == complex
    milestones:
      - name: string
        strategies: string[]
        dependencies: string[]
        bottlenecks: string[]
        contingency: string

Error Handling

| Condition | Action | |-----------|--------| | Vague challenge | Ask clarifying questions about scope, constraints, success criteria | | Consultants reach same conclusions | Push for genuine disagreement; explore edge cases | | No clear winner among approaches | Present top 2 with explicit trade-off comparison | | Confidence is Low | State what specific information would raise confidence | | User wants quick answer | Offer abbreviated single-consultant analysis with caveats |

Constraints

Consultants must genuinely disagree, not rubber-stamp
Quantify impact, probability, timelines where possible
State uncertainty honestly
Recommendation must be executable, not theoretical

Agent Skills: Business Decision Analysis

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