Agent Skills: PMF Validation

PMF Validation

Frameworks for achieving and measuring product-market fit.

Related Skills

• pm-assumption-mapping - Prioritizing assumptions by risk
• pm-customer-interviews - Discovery interview techniques
• pm-jobs-to-be-done - Understanding customer motivations

Assumption Risk Framework

High Risk (Validate First)

| Assumption | Validation Method | Success Criteria | |------------|------------------|------------------| | Problem exists | Customer interviews (10+) | 7/10 confirm problem | | Willing to pay | Price testing, pre-orders | 3+ paying commitments | | Pain is acute | Severity scoring | Average 8+/10 |

Medium Risk (Validate During MVP)

| Assumption | Validation Method | Success Criteria | |------------|------------------|------------------| | Features priority | Usage analytics | 60%+ use core feature | | Channel works | A/B testing | CAC < 1/3 LTV | | Positioning | Competitive testing | Clear preference signals |

Low Risk (Validate Post-Launch)

• Scale assumptions
• Expansion opportunities
• Adjacent markets

MVP Strategy

Definition Criteria

| Element | Question | Output | |---------|----------|--------| | Core value | What's the one thing it MUST do? | Single feature | | Target user | Who has this problem most acutely? | Narrow persona | | Success metric | How do we know it works? | Measurable KPI | | Timeline | What's the fastest we can test? | Weeks, not months |

Feature Prioritization

| Category | Include in MVP | Defer | |----------|----------------|-------| | Must-have | Core value delivery | Enhancement features | | Differentiator | Key unique angle | Secondary differentiators | | Table stakes | Minimum viable | Nice-to-haves |

Validation Methodology

Customer Discovery Script

Opening (2 min)

• Build rapport
• Explain purpose: learning, not selling

Problem Exploration (10 min)

• "Tell me about the last time you dealt with [problem]..."
• "What did you try? What worked/didn't work?"
• "On a scale of 1-10, how painful is this?"

Solution Testing (5 min)

• "If you could wave a magic wand, what would happen?"
• "I'm working on something that [brief description]..."
• "Would this help? Why or why not?"

Commitment Testing (3 min)

• "Would you be interested in trying an early version?"
• "What would you expect to pay for something like this?"
• "Can I follow up when we have something to show?"

Signal Interpretation

| Signal | Meaning | Action | |--------|---------|--------| | "I'd pay for this" | Interest | Get specific on price | | "Keep me updated" | Lukewarm | Find stronger pain | | "I already have X" | Competition | Differentiate or pivot | | "Let me introduce you to..." | Enthusiasm | Strong signal |

Decision Framework

Green Light (Proceed)

• 70%+ confirm problem exists
• 3+ paying commitments
• Clear differentiation
• Unit economics work

Yellow Light (Iterate)

• Mixed feedback on value prop
• Price resistance but interest
• Unclear positioning
• Channel uncertainty

Red Light (Pivot)

• <30% problem confirmation
• No willingness to pay
• Existing solutions "good enough"
• No user enthusiasm

PMF Indicators

| Metric | Pre-PMF | At PMF | Strong PMF | |--------|---------|--------|------------| | Retention | <20% | 40%+ | 60%+ | | NPS | <20 | 40+ | 60+ | | Word of mouth | <10% | 25%+ | 40%+ | | Revenue growth | Flat | 20%+ MoM | 50%+ MoM | | Inbound demand | None | Some | Pull > Push |