Agent-Skills.md

Agent Skills: Druckenmiller Strategy Synthesizer

スタンレー・ドラッケンミラーの投資哲学と戦略に基づいた投資アドバイスを提供。30年間無敗、年率30%近いリターンを達成した伝説的投資家の思考法を活用し、マクロ経済分析、リスク管理、ポジション構築、市場サイクルの読み方などについて実践的な指導を行う。投資判断、市場分析、リスク管理、ポートフォリオ構築などの相談時に使用。

investment-strategyrisk-managementmacroeconomic-analysisportfolio-constructionmarket-cycles
financeID: tradermonty/claude-trading-skills/stanley-druckenmiller-investment
63

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pnpm dlx add-skill https://github.com/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills/tree/HEAD/skills/stanley-druckenmiller-investment

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skills/stanley-druckenmiller-investment/SKILL.md

Skill Metadata

Name
stanley-druckenmiller-investment
Description
Druckenmiller Strategy Synthesizer - Integrates 8 upstream skill outputs (Market Breadth, Uptrend Analysis, Market Top, Macro Regime, FTD Detector, VCP Screener, Theme Detector, CANSLIM Screener) into a unified conviction score (0-100), pattern classification, and allocation recommendation. Use when user asks about overall market conviction, portfolio positioning, asset allocation, strategy synthesis, or Druckenmiller-style analysis. Triggers on queries like "What is my conviction level?", "How should I position?", "Run the strategy synthesizer", "Druckenmiller analysis", "総合的な市場判断", "確信度スコア", "ポートフォリオ配分", "ドラッケンミラー分析".

Druckenmiller Strategy Synthesizer

Purpose

Synthesize outputs from 8 upstream analysis skills (5 required + 3 optional) into a single composite conviction score (0-100), classify the market into one of 4 Druckenmiller patterns, and generate actionable allocation recommendations. This is a meta-skill that consumes structured JSON outputs from other skills — it requires no API keys of its own.

When to Use This Skill

English:

  • User asks "What's my overall conviction?" or "How should I be positioned?"
  • User wants a unified view synthesizing breadth, uptrend, top risk, macro, and FTD signals
  • User asks about Druckenmiller-style portfolio positioning
  • User requests strategy synthesis after running individual analysis skills
  • User asks "Should I increase or decrease exposure?"
  • User wants pattern classification (policy pivot, distortion, contrarian, wait)

Japanese:

  • 「総合的な市場判断は？」「今のポジショニングは？」
  • ブレッドス、アップトレンド、天井リスク、マクロの統合判断
  • 「エクスポージャーを増やすべき？減らすべき？」
  • 「ドラッケンミラー分析を実行して」
  • 個別スキル実行後の戦略統合レポート

Input Requirements

Required Skills (5)

| # | Skill | JSON Prefix | Role | |---|-------|-------------|------| | 1 | Market Breadth Analyzer | market_breadth_ | Market participation breadth | | 2 | Uptrend Analyzer | uptrend_analysis_ | Sector uptrend ratios | | 3 | Market Top Detector | market_top_ | Distribution / top risk (defense) | | 4 | Macro Regime Detector | macro_regime_ | Macro regime transition (1-2Y structure) | | 5 | FTD Detector | ftd_detector_ | Bottom confirmation / re-entry (offense) |

Optional Skills (3)

| # | Skill | JSON Prefix | Role | |---|-------|-------------|------| | 6 | VCP Screener | vcp_screener_ | Momentum stock setups (VCP) | | 7 | Theme Detector | theme_detector_ | Theme / sector momentum | | 8 | CANSLIM Screener | canslim_screener_ | Growth stock setups + M(Market Direction) |

Run the required skills first. The synthesizer reads their JSON output from reports/.

Execution Workflow

Phase 1: Verify Prerequisites

Check that the 5 required skill JSON reports exist in reports/ and are recent (< 72 hours). If any are missing, run the corresponding skill first.

Phase 2: Execute Strategy Synthesizer

python3 skills/stanley-druckenmiller-investment/scripts/strategy_synthesizer.py \
  --reports-dir reports/ \
  --output-dir reports/ \
  --max-age 72

The script will:

  1. Load and validate all upstream skill JSON reports
  2. Extract normalized signals from each skill
  3. Calculate 7 component scores (weighted 0-100)
  4. Compute composite conviction score
  5. Classify into one of 4 Druckenmiller patterns
  6. Generate target allocation and position sizing
  7. Output JSON and Markdown reports

Phase 3: Present Results

Present the generated Markdown report, highlighting:

  • Conviction score and zone
  • Detected pattern and match strength
  • Strongest and weakest components
  • Target allocation (equity/bonds/alternatives/cash)
  • Position sizing parameters
  • Relevant Druckenmiller principle

Phase 4: Provide Druckenmiller Context

Load appropriate reference documents to provide philosophical context:

  • High conviction: Emphasize concentration and "fat pitch" principles
  • Low conviction: Emphasize capital preservation and patience
  • Pattern-specific: Apply relevant case study from references/case-studies.md

7-Component Scoring System

| # | Component | Weight | Source Skill(s) | Key Signal | |---|-----------|--------|----------------|------------| | 1 | Market Structure | 18% | Breadth + Uptrend | Market participation health | | 2 | Distribution Risk | 18% | Market Top (inverted) | Institutional selling risk | | 3 | Bottom Confirmation | 12% | FTD Detector | Re-entry signal after correction | | 4 | Macro Alignment | 18% | Macro Regime | Regime favorability | | 5 | Theme Quality | 12% | Theme Detector | Sector momentum health | | 6 | Setup Availability | 10% | VCP + CANSLIM | Quality stock setups | | 7 | Signal Convergence | 12% | All 5 required | Cross-skill agreement |

4 Pattern Classifications

| Pattern | Trigger Conditions | Druckenmiller Principle | |---------|-------------------|----------------------| | Policy Pivot Anticipation | Transitional regime + high transition probability | "Focus on central banks and liquidity" | | Unsustainable Distortion | Top risk >= 60 + contraction/inflationary regime | "How much you lose when wrong matters most" | | Extreme Sentiment Contrarian | FTD confirmed + high top risk + bearish breadth | "Most money made in bear markets" | | Wait & Observe | Low conviction + mixed signals (default) | "When you don't see it, don't swing" |

Conviction Zone Mapping

| Score | Zone | Exposure | Guidance | |-------|------|----------|----------| | 80-100 | Maximum Conviction | 90-100% | Fat pitch - swing hard | | 60-79 | High Conviction | 70-90% | Standard risk management | | 40-59 | Moderate Conviction | 50-70% | Reduce position sizes | | 20-39 | Low Conviction | 20-50% | Preserve capital, minimal risk | | 0-19 | Capital Preservation | 0-20% | Maximum defense |

Output Files

  • druckenmiller_strategy_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.json — Structured analysis data
  • druckenmiller_strategy_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.md — Human-readable report

API Requirements

None. This skill reads JSON outputs from other skills. No API keys required.

Reference Documents

references/investment-philosophy.md

  • Core Druckenmiller principles: concentration, capital preservation, 18-month horizon
  • Quantitative rules: daily vol targets, max position sizing
  • Load when providing philosophical context for conviction assessment

references/market-analysis-guide.md

  • Signal-to-action mapping framework
  • Macro regime interpretation for allocation decisions
  • Load when explaining component scores or allocation rationale

references/case-studies.md

  • Historical examples: 1992 GBP, 2000 tech bubble, 2008 crisis
  • Pattern classification examples with actual market conditions
  • Load when user asks about historical parallels

references/conviction_matrix.md

  • Quantitative signal-to-action mapping tables
  • Market Top Zone x Macro Regime matrix
  • Load when user needs precise exposure numbers for specific signal combinations

When to Load References

  • First use: Load investment-philosophy.md for framework understanding
  • Allocation questions: Load market-analysis-guide.md + conviction_matrix.md
  • Historical context: Load case-studies.md
  • Regular execution: References not needed — script handles scoring

Relationship to Other Skills

| Skill | Relationship | Time Horizon | |-------|-------------|-------------| | Market Breadth Analyzer | Input (required) | Current snapshot | | Uptrend Analyzer | Input (required) | Current snapshot | | Market Top Detector | Input (required) | 2-8 weeks tactical | | Macro Regime Detector | Input (required) | 1-2 years structural | | FTD Detector | Input (required) | Days-weeks event | | VCP Screener | Input (optional) | Setup-specific | | Theme Detector | Input (optional) | Weeks-months thematic | | CANSLIM Screener | Input (optional) | Setup-specific | | This Skill | Synthesizer | Unified conviction |