ethics-safety-impact
Use when decisions could affect groups differently and need to anticipate harms/benefits, assess fairness and safety concerns, identify vulnerable populations, propose risk mitigations, define monitoring metrics, or when user mentions ethical review, impact assessment, differential harm, safety analysis, vulnerable groups, bias audit, or responsible AI/tech.
reference-class-forecasting
Use when starting a forecast to establish a statistical baseline (base rate) before analyzing specifics. Invoke when need to anchor predictions in historical reality, avoid "this time is different" bias, or establish outside view before inside view analysis. Use when user mentions base rates, reference classes, outside view, or starting a new prediction.
scout-mindset-bias-check
Use to detect and remove cognitive biases from reasoning. Invoke when prediction feels emotional, stuck at 50/50, or when you want to validate forecasting process. Use when user mentions scout mindset, soldier mindset, bias check, reversal test, scope sensitivity, or cognitive distortions.