thrivve-mc-when
Thrivve Partners Monte Carlo simulation to forecast completion date based on remaining work and historical throughput. Use when the user asks "when will I complete [N] stories/tasks" with historical daily throughput data. Requires at least 10 days of throughput history, a count of remaining items, and optional confidence level (default 85%).
thrivve-mc-how-many
Thrivve Partners Monte Carlo simulation to forecast story/task completion based on historical throughput. Use when the user asks "how many stories/tasks will be completed by [date]" with historical daily throughput data. Requires at least 10 days of throughput history and a future target date. Provides probabilistic forecasts at specified confidence levels (default 85%).
model-convergence-forecast
Forecast convergence patterns in multi-model consensus scenarios.
forecast-premortem
Use to stress-test predictions by assuming they failed and working backward to identify why. Invoke when confidence is high (>80% or <20%), need to identify tail risks and unknown unknowns, or want to widen overconfident intervals. Use when user mentions premortem, backcasting, what could go wrong, stress test, or black swans.
reference-class-forecasting
Use when starting a forecast to establish a statistical baseline (base rate) before analyzing specifics. Invoke when need to anchor predictions in historical reality, avoid "this time is different" bias, or establish outside view before inside view analysis. Use when user mentions base rates, reference classes, outside view, or starting a new prediction.
weather
Get current weather and forecasts (no API key required).
