us-market-bubble-detector
Evaluates market bubble risk through quantitative data-driven analysis using the revised Minsky/Kindleberger framework v2.1. Prioritizes objective metrics (Put/Call, VIX, margin debt, breadth, IPO data) over subjective impressions. Features strict qualitative adjustment criteria with confirmation bias prevention. Supports practical investment decisions with mandatory data collection and mechanical scoring. Use when user asks about bubble risk, valuation concerns, or profit-taking timing.
market-mechanics-betting
Use to convert probabilities into decisions (bet/pass/hedge) and optimize scoring. Invoke when need to calculate edge, size bets optimally (Kelly Criterion), extremize aggregated forecasts, or improve Brier scores. Use when user mentions betting strategy, Kelly, edge calculation, Brier score, extremizing, or translating belief into action.
mvp-case-builder
Construct statistical arguments for MVP/awards. Narrative framing, comparison to past winners, advanced metrics, counter-arguments.
sales-forecast-builder
Weighted pipeline forecast by probability. Historical accuracy tracking, commit vs best-case scenarios, deal slippage patterns.
risk-assessment
Identify, analyze, and prioritize project risks using qualitative and quantitative methods. Develop mitigation strategies to minimize impact and maximize project success probability.
user-research-analysis
Analyze user research data to uncover insights, identify patterns, and inform design decisions. Synthesize qualitative and quantitative research into actionable recommendations.