reference-class-forecasting
Use when starting a forecast to establish a statistical baseline (base rate) before analyzing specifics. Invoke when need to anchor predictions in historical reality, avoid "this time is different" bias, or establish outside view before inside view analysis. Use when user mentions base rates, reference classes, outside view, or starting a new prediction.
scout-mindset-bias-check
Use to detect and remove cognitive biases from reasoning. Invoke when prediction feels emotional, stuck at 50/50, or when you want to validate forecasting process. Use when user mentions scout mindset, soldier mindset, bias check, reversal test, scope sensitivity, or cognitive distortions.
role-switch
Use when stakeholders have conflicting priorities and need alignment, suspect decision blind spots from single perspective, need to pressure-test proposals before presenting, want empathy for different viewpoints (eng vs PM vs legal vs user), building consensus across functions, evaluating tradeoffs with multi-dimensional impact, or when user mentions "what would X think", "stakeholder alignment", "see from their perspective", "blind spots", or "conflicting interests".
symmetry-discovery-questionnaire
Use when ML engineers need to identify symmetries in their data but don't know where to start. Invoke when user mentions data symmetry, invariance discovery, what transformations matter, or needs help recognizing patterns their model should respect. Works collaboratively through domain analysis, transformation testing, and physical constraint identification.
synthesis-and-analogy
Use when synthesizing information from multiple sources (literature review, stakeholder feedback, research findings, data from different systems), creating or evaluating analogies for explanation or problem-solving (cross-domain transfer, "X is like Y", structural mapping), combining conflicting viewpoints into unified framework, identifying patterns across disparate sources, finding creative solutions by transferring principles from one domain to another, testing whether analogies hold (surface vs deep similarities), or when user mentions "synthesize", "combine sources", "analogy", "like", "similar to", "transfer from", "integrate findings", "what's it analogous to".
meta-prompt-engineering
Use when prompts produce inconsistent or unreliable outputs, need explicit structure and constraints, require safety guardrails or quality checks, involve multi-step reasoning that needs decomposition, need domain expertise encoding, or when user mentions improving prompts, prompt templates, structured prompts, prompt optimization, reliable AI outputs, or prompt patterns.
layered-reasoning
Use when reasoning across multiple abstraction levels (strategic/tactical/operational), designing systems with hierarchical layers, explaining concepts at different depths, maintaining consistency between high-level principles and concrete implementation, or when users mention 30,000-foot view, layered thinking, abstraction levels, top-down design, or need to move fluidly between strategy and execution.
heuristics-and-checklists
Use when making decisions under time pressure or uncertainty, preventing errors in complex procedures, designing decision rules or checklists, simplifying complex choices, or when user mentions heuristics, rules of thumb, mental models, checklists, error prevention, cognitive biases, satisficing, or needs practical decision shortcuts and systematic error reduction.
morphological-analysis-triz
Use when need systematic innovation through comprehensive solution space exploration, resolving technical contradictions (speed vs precision, strength vs weight, cost vs quality), generating novel product configurations, exploring all feasible design alternatives before prototyping, finding inventive solutions to engineering problems, identifying patent opportunities through parameter combinations, or when user mentions morphological analysis, Zwicky box, TRIZ, inventive principles, technical contradictions, systematic innovation, or design space exploration.
estimation-fermi
Use when making quick order-of-magnitude estimates under uncertainty (market sizing, resource planning, feasibility checks), decomposing complex quantities into estimable parts, bounding unknowns with upper/lower limits, sanity-checking strategic assumptions, or when user mentions Fermi estimation, back-of-envelope calculation, order of magnitude, ballpark estimate, triangulation, or needs to assess feasibility before detailed analysis.
expected-value
Use when making decisions under uncertainty with quantifiable outcomes, comparing risky options (investments, product bets, strategic choices), prioritizing projects by expected return, assessing whether to take a gamble, or when user mentions expected value, EV calculation, risk-adjusted return, probability-weighted outcomes, decision tree, or needs to choose between uncertain alternatives.
ethics-safety-impact
Use when decisions could affect groups differently and need to anticipate harms/benefits, assess fairness and safety concerns, identify vulnerable populations, propose risk mitigations, define monitoring metrics, or when user mentions ethical review, impact assessment, differential harm, safety analysis, vulnerable groups, bias audit, or responsible AI/tech.
focus-timeboxing-8020
Use when managing time and attention, combating procrastination or context-switching, prioritizing high-impact work, planning daily/weekly schedules, improving focus and productivity, or when user mentions timeboxing, Pomodoro, deep work, 80/20 rule, Pareto principle, focus blocks, task batching, energy management, or needs structured approach to getting important work done.
facilitation-patterns
Use when running meetings, workshops, brainstorms, design sprints, retrospectives, or team decision-making sessions. Apply when need structured group discussion, managing diverse stakeholder input, ensuring equal participation, handling conflict or groupthink, or when user mentions facilitation, workshop design, meeting patterns, session planning, or running effective collaborative sessions.
code-data-analysis-scaffolds
Use when starting technical work requiring structured approach - writing tests before code (TDD), planning data exploration (EDA), designing statistical analysis, clarifying modeling objectives (causal vs predictive), or validating results. Invoke when user mentions "write tests for", "explore this dataset", "analyze", "model", "validate", or when technical work needs systematic scaffolding before execution.
deliberation-debate-red-teaming
Use when testing plans or decisions for blind spots, need adversarial review before launch, validating strategy against worst-case scenarios, building consensus through structured debate, identifying attack vectors or vulnerabilities, user mentions "play devil's advocate", "what could go wrong", "challenge our assumptions", "stress test this", "red team", or when groupthink or confirmation bias may be hiding risks.
decision-matrix
Use when comparing multiple named alternatives across several criteria, need transparent trade-off analysis, making group decisions requiring alignment, choosing between vendors/tools/strategies, stakeholders need to see decision rationale, balancing competing priorities (cost vs quality vs speed), user mentions "which option should we choose", "compare alternatives", "evaluate vendors", "trade-offs", or when decision needs to be defensible and data-driven.
design-of-experiments
Use when optimizing multi-factor systems with limited experimental budget, screening many variables to find the vital few, discovering interactions between parameters, mapping response surfaces for peak performance, validating robustness to noise factors, or when users mention factorial designs, A/B/n testing, parameter tuning, process optimization, or experimental efficiency.
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