Market Research Skill Skill

Market Research Skill

Performs deep market research for iOS/macOS app ideas. Provides market sizing, growth analysis, and opportunity assessment.

When to Use This Skill

Use this Skill when the user wants to:

Understand market size and potential
Analyze market growth trends
Calculate TAM/SAM/SOM
Assess market maturity
Identify entry barriers
Understand distribution channels
Estimate revenue potential
Deep-dive after initial problem discovery

This is a follow-up to product-agent discovery - use this when you need market depth.

What This Skill Does

1. Market Sizing (TAM/SAM/SOM)

TAM (Total Addressable Market): Total revenue opportunity if you captured 100% of the market
SAM (Serviceable Available Market): Segment of TAM you can reach with your product/distribution
SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market): Realistic share you can capture in near term (1-3 years)

2. Growth Analysis

Historical growth rates
Future projections (3-5 years)
Growth drivers
Market trends

3. Market Maturity Assessment

Stage: Emerging, Growing, Mature, or Declining
Market lifecycle position
Implications for new entrants

4. Entry Barriers

Technical barriers
Brand/network effects
Regulatory requirements
Capital requirements
Customer acquisition costs

5. Distribution Channels

How apps in this category reach users
App Store dynamics
Alternative channels (web, enterprise, etc.)

6. Revenue Potential

Average revenue per user (ARPU)
Conversion rates
LTV (Lifetime Value)
Revenue models in use

Output Structure

{
  "market_category": "Task Management",
  "market_sizing": {
    "tam": {
      "value": "$4.5B",
      "description": "Global productivity software market",
      "methodology": "Total potential revenue if product served all users globally"
    },
    "sam": {
      "value": "$900M",
      "description": "iOS/macOS task management apps (20% of TAM)",
      "methodology": "Addressable via App Store distribution on Apple platforms"
    },
    "som": {
      "value": "$45M",
      "description": "Realistic 3-year capture (5% of SAM)",
      "methodology": "Based on typical indie app market share penetration"
    }
  },
  "market_growth": {
    "historical_growth": "12% CAGR (2021-2025)",
    "projected_growth": "10% CAGR (2026-2030)",
    "growth_drivers": [
      "Remote work adoption",
      "Increased digital task management",
      "Mobile-first workflows"
    ],
    "headwinds": [
      "Market saturation",
      "Consolidation toward major players"
    ]
  },
  "market_maturity": {
    "stage": "Mature",
    "characteristics": [
      "Established leaders (Todoist, Things)",
      "Clear product categories",
      "Slowing growth rate",
      "Focus on feature differentiation"
    ],
    "implications": "Differentiation critical. Hard to compete on basics. Must have unique angle."
  },
  "entry_barriers": {
    "low": [
      "Technical implementation (task management is straightforward)"
    ],
    "medium": [
      "Building user base in crowded market",
      "Achieving reliable sync across devices"
    ],
    "high": [
      "Brand recognition (Todoist, Things have 10+ years)",
      "Network effects (team collaboration features)",
      "Customer switching costs (data lock-in)"
    ],
    "overall_assessment": "Medium-High - Technical execution is achievable, but market position is difficult"
  },
  "distribution_channels": {
    "primary": {
      "channel": "App Store",
      "percentage": "75%",
      "dynamics": "Discoverability challenging. ASO critical. Top charts dominated by established apps."
    },
    "secondary": [
      {
        "channel": "Direct website",
        "percentage": "15%",
        "dynamics": "For power users. Allows higher pricing. Better for subscription retention."
      },
      {
        "channel": "Word of mouth / Communities",
        "percentage": "10%",
        "dynamics": "Productivity communities, Reddit, Twitter. High-intent users."
      }
    ]
  },
  "revenue_potential": {
    "arpu": {
      "freemium": "$12/year (5% convert at $20/year)",
      "paid_only": "$30-40/year",
      "premium": "$60-100/year"
    },
    "conversion_rates": {
      "free_to_paid": "3-7% industry average",
      "trial_to_paid": "15-25% with 14-day trial"
    },
    "ltv": "$150-300 (2-5 year user lifecycle)",
    "realistic_year_1": "$50K-200K (1K-5K users at $40 ARPU)",
    "realistic_year_3": "$500K-2M (10K-50K users with growth)",
    "path_to_scale": "Requires strong differentiation, word-of-mouth growth, and retention >85%"
  },
  "market_opportunity_score": "6/10 - Moderate",
  "reasoning": "Large market with growth, but mature and competitive. Success requires clear differentiation and excellent execution. Not a 'gold rush' market, but sustainable business possible for well-positioned product."
}

How to Perform Market Research

Step 1: Define Market Scope

Question: What exact market are you analyzing?
- "Task management apps" (broad)
- "iOS task management apps" (narrower)
- "AI-powered task management for Apple users" (specific)

Start specific for better analysis.

Step 2: Size the Market (TAM/SAM/SOM)

TAM Calculation:

Method 1: Top-down
- Global productivity software market: $50B
- Task management segment: ~10% = $5B TAM

Method 2: Bottom-up
- Potential users globally: 500M knowledge workers
- Willing to pay for task management: 20% = 100M
- Average spend: $50/year
- TAM = 100M × $50 = $5B

SAM Calculation:

Filter TAM by what you can reach:
- TAM: $5B global
- Your distribution: iOS/macOS App Store only
- Apple users: ~30% of market = $1.5B
- Addressable via App Store: 60% = $900M SAM

SOM Calculation:

Realistic capture in 3 years:
- SAM: $900M
- New entrant market share: 0.5-2% realistic
- With strong differentiation: 5% optimistic
- SOM = $900M × 1-5% = $9M-45M

Step 3: Assess Growth

Use WebSearch to find:

Market research reports
Growth rate data
Trend articles

Key searches:

"[category] market size 2026"
"[category] growth rate"
"[category] market trends 2026"

Step 4: Determine Maturity

Indicators:

Emerging (Good for new entrants):

High growth (>20% CAGR)
No clear leaders
Rapid innovation
Unclear best practices

Growing (Good opportunity):

Strong growth (10-20% CAGR)
Leaders emerging
Product-market fit established
Room for differentiation

Mature (Differentiation required):

Moderate growth (5-10% CAGR)
Clear leaders
Established patterns
Compete on specific niches

Declining (Avoid):

Negative or flat growth
Consolidation
Commoditization

Step 5: Identify Barriers

Low barriers → Easier entry but more competition High barriers → Harder entry but better moat if you succeed

Assess:

Technical complexity
Brand importance
Network effects
Switching costs
Capital needs

Step 6: Map Distribution

For iOS/macOS apps:

App Store (primary) - understand ranking factors
TestFlight (beta)
Direct website (for pro users)
SetApp / Bundle services
Enterprise/B2B channels

Step 7: Estimate Revenue

Key metrics to research:

Industry ARPU
Typical conversion rates
Churn rates
User acquisition costs

Reality check:

Year 1: 1K-5K users (realistic for indie)
Year 2: 5K-20K users (with growth)
Year 3: 20K-100K users (if successful)

At $40 ARPU:
Year 1: $40K-200K
Year 2: $200K-800K
Year 3: $800K-4M

Common Questions

"How do I calculate TAM without market reports?"

Bottom-up approach:

Estimate target user count (e.g., "iOS users who manage tasks")
Research willingness to pay (look at competitor pricing)
Multiply: TAM = Users × Average Spend

Proxy approach:

Find similar market (e.g., "Calendar apps")
Adjust for your market differences
Validate with multiple sources

"What's a 'good' market size?"

For indie developers:

SOM > $5M: Good opportunity
SOM $1-5M: Viable if low competition
SOM < $1M: Likely too small unless niche/passion project

Remember: $1M SOM = ~25K users at $40 ARPU (achievable!)

"How mature is too mature?"

Mature markets CAN work if:

You have clear differentiation
Targeting underserved niche
Better execution than incumbents
Novel business model

Avoid if:

No differentiation angle
Dominant players with network effects
Declining growth
Your idea is "me too"

Integration with Other Skills

Use market-research after initial discovery:

1. product-agent discover → Problem validation
2. market-research → Market opportunity sizing
3. competitive-analysis → Understand players
4. → Decision: Build vs. Don't Build

Example Research Flow

User asks: "Research the market for habit tracking apps"

You do:

Define scope:
- "iOS habit tracking apps targeting personal development users"
Calculate TAM/SAM/SOM:
- TAM: Personal development app market $3B
- SAM: iOS habit tracking apps $300M (10%)
- SOM: Realistic 3-year capture $15M (5%)
Growth analysis (WebSearch):
- Search: "habit tracking app market growth 2026"
- Result: 15% CAGR, driven by wellness trends
Maturity:
- Stage: Growing (strong leaders emerging but room for innovation)
- Key players: Streaks, Habitica, Way of Life
Barriers:
- Low: Technical (habit tracking is simple)
- Medium: Building habit formation psychology
- High: Established apps have user data (switching cost)
Distribution:
- App Store: 80% (ASO critical)
- Wellness communities: 15%
- Influencer partnerships: 5%
Revenue potential:
- ARPU: $20/year (mix of $2.99 one-time and $5/mo subscriptions)
- Year 3 realistic: $300K (15K users)

Present findings:

Market Research: Habit Tracking Apps

Market Size:
- TAM: $3B (personal development apps)
- SAM: $300M (iOS habit tracking)
- SOM: $15M (5% realistic 3-year capture)

Growth: 15% CAGR (wellness trend-driven)
Maturity: Growing (opportunity for innovation)

Opportunity Score: 7/10 - Good

Reasoning: Growing market with room for differentiation.
Not overcrowded like task management. Wellness trend tailwind.
Success depends on unique habit formation approach and
strong retention (>70%).

Revenue Potential:
- Year 1: $20K-100K
- Year 3: $200K-1M
- Requires: Good ASO, word-of-mouth, community building

Tips for Accurate Research

Use Multiple Sources: Don't rely on one number
Be Conservative: Better to underestimate than over
Validate with Proxies: Compare to similar successful apps
Check App Annie/Sensor Tower: For actual app market data
Read Financial Reports: Public companies disclose market data

When to Run This Analysis

Perfect timing:

After discovery shows potential
Before committing to development
When seeking funding (investors want market size)
When setting revenue goals

Skip if:

Discovery showed "DON'T BUILD"
Just experimenting/learning
Building for personal use only

Output File Location

Save market research results to one of these locations:

market-research.md (project root)
docs/market-research.md (if docs folder exists)

Format: Use the JSON structure in the Output Structure section, wrapped in a markdown code block with context and summary.

Integration: The PRD generator skill will automatically look for this file and integrate the insights into the PRD's Market Context section (TAM/SAM/SOM, growth trends, entry barriers, revenue expectations).

Remember: Market research informs GO/NO-GO decisions. A big market with competition beats a tiny market with no competition (usually).

Agent Skills: Market Research Skill

Install this agent skill to your local

Skill Files