Agent Skills: hypothesis-tree

Build a Day-1 hypothesis tree — your best-guess answer to the governing question, broken into 2–3 supporting sub-hypotheses, with the test that would prove or kill each one. Different from an issue tree (which decomposes the problem space). This commits to an answer before you do the work, so the work targets what would actually change your mind. Use at the start of any analysis where you'd otherwise "boil the ocean."