security-threat-model
Use when designing or reviewing systems handling sensitive data (PII, PHI, financial, auth credentials), building features with security implications (auth, payments, file uploads, APIs), preparing for security audits or compliance (PCI, HIPAA, SOC 2), investigating security incidents, integrating third-party services, or when user mentions "threat model", "security architecture", "STRIDE", "trust boundaries", "attack surface", or "security review".
chain-estimation-decision-storytelling
Use when making high-stakes decisions under uncertainty that require stakeholder buy-in. Invoke when evaluating strategic options (build vs buy, market entry, resource allocation), quantifying tradeoffs with uncertain outcomes, justifying investments with expected value analysis, pitching recommendations to decision-makers, or creating business cases with cost-benefit estimates. Use when user mentions "should we", "ROI analysis", "make a case for", "evaluate options", "expected value", "justify decision", or needs to combine estimation, decision analysis, and persuasive communication.
bayesian-reasoning-calibration
Use when making predictions or judgments under uncertainty and need to explicitly update beliefs with new evidence. Invoke when forecasting outcomes, evaluating probabilities, testing hypotheses, calibrating confidence, assessing risks with uncertain data, or avoiding overconfidence bias. Use when user mentions priors, likelihoods, Bayes theorem, probability updates, forecasting, calibration, or belief revision.
forecast-premortem
Use to stress-test predictions by assuming they failed and working backward to identify why. Invoke when confidence is high (>80% or <20%), need to identify tail risks and unknown unknowns, or want to widen overconfident intervals. Use when user mentions premortem, backcasting, what could go wrong, stress test, or black swans.
expected-value
Use when making decisions under uncertainty with quantifiable outcomes, comparing risky options (investments, product bets, strategic choices), prioritizing projects by expected return, assessing whether to take a gamble, or when user mentions expected value, EV calculation, risk-adjusted return, probability-weighted outcomes, decision tree, or needs to choose between uncertain alternatives.
project-risk-register
Use when managing project uncertainty through structured risk tracking, identifying and assessing risks with probability×impact scoring (risk matrix), assigning risk owners and mitigation plans, tracking contingencies and triggers, monitoring risk evolution over project lifecycle, or when user mentions risk register, risk assessment, risk management, risk mitigation, probability-impact matrix, or asks "what could go wrong with this project?".
game-strategy-simulator
What-if scenario analyzer for sports. Play-calling recommendations, clock management, substitution patterns, risk/reward calculations.
deal-review-framework
Structured deal assessment using MEDDIC, BANT. Risk scoring, required evidence by stage, red flag detection, coaching points.
portfolio-analyzer
Review investment portfolios for risk, diversification, fees. Asset allocation recommendations, tax-loss harvesting, rebalancing.
training-log-analyzer
Track workouts, stats, progress over time. Identify improvement areas, plateaus, rest/recovery needs, peak performance timing, injury risk.
contract-analyzer
Review contracts for concerning clauses, extract key terms, compare to standard terms, and flag unusual provisions. Use when user needs contract review, legal document analysis, or agreement evaluation.
task-decomposer
Decompose Linear todos into actionable, testifiable chunks with rationale, as-is/to-be analysis, expected outputs, and risk assessment for effective project management
risk-assessment
Identify, analyze, and prioritize project risks using qualitative and quantitative methods. Develop mitigation strategies to minimize impact and maximize project success probability.
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